prediction system
Proportional integral derivative booster for neural networks-based time-series prediction: Case of water demand prediction
Salloom, Tony, Kaynak, Okyay, Yub, Xinbo, He, Wei
Multi-step time-series prediction is an essential supportive step for decision-makers in several industrial areas. Artificial intelligence techniques, which use a neural network component in various forms, have recently frequently been used to accomplish this step. However, the complexity of the neural network structure still stands up as a critical problem against prediction accuracy. In this paper, a method inspired by the proportional-integral-derivative (PID) control approach is investigated to enhance the performance of neural network models used for multi-step ahead prediction of periodic time-series information while maintaining a negligible impact on the complexity of the system. The PID-based method is applied to the predicted value at each time step to bring that value closer to the real value. The water demand forecasting problem is considered as a case study, where two deep neural network models from the literature are used to prove the effectiveness of the proposed boosting method. Furthermore, to prove the applicability of this PID-based booster to other types of periodic time-series prediction problems, it is applied to enhance the accuracy of a neural network model used for multi-step forecasting of hourly energy consumption. The comparison between the results of the original prediction models and the results after using the proposed technique demonstrates the superiority of the proposed method in terms of prediction accuracy and system complexity.
Uncertainty in Machine Learning
Weytjens, Hans, Verbeke, Wouter
This book chapter introduces the principles and practical applications of uncertainty quantification in machine learning. It explains how to identify and distinguish between different types of uncertainty and presents methods for quantifying uncertainty in predictive models, including linear regression, random forests, and neural networks. The chapter also covers conformal prediction as a framework for generating predictions with predefined confidence intervals. Finally, it explores how uncertainty estimation can be leveraged to improve business decision-making, enhance model reliability, and support risk-aware strategies.
The value of prediction in identifying the worst-off: Interview with Unai Fischer Abaigar
At this year's International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML2025), Unai Fischer-Abaigar, Christoph Kern and Juan Carlos Perdomo won an outstanding paper award for their work The Value of Prediction in Identifying the Worst-Off. We hear from Unai about the main contributions of the paper, why prediction systems are an interesting area for study, and further work they are planning in this space. My work focuses on prediction systems used in public institutions to make high-stakes decisions about people. A central example is resource allocation, where institutions face limited capacity and must decide which cases to prioritize. Think of an employment office deciding which jobseekers are most at risk of long-term unemployment, a hospital triaging patients, or fraud investigators identifying cases most likely to warrant investigations.
Towards Robust Stability Prediction in Smart Grids: GAN-based Approach under Data Constraints and Adversarial Challenges
Efatinasab, Emad, Brighente, Alessandro, Donadel, Denis, Conti, Mauro, Rampazzo, Mirco
Smart grids are critical for addressing the growing energy demand due to global population growth and urbanization. They enhance efficiency, reliability, and sustainability by integrating renewable energy. Ensuring their availability and safety requires advanced operational control and safety measures. Researchers employ AI and machine learning to assess grid stability, but challenges like the lack of datasets and cybersecurity threats, including adversarial attacks, persist. In particular, data scarcity is a key issue: obtaining grid instability instances is tough due to the need for significant expertise, resources, and time. However, they are essential to test novel research advancements and security mitigations. In this paper, we introduce a novel framework to detect instability in smart grids by employing only stable data. It relies on a Generative Adversarial Network (GAN) where the generator is trained to create instability data that are used along with stable data to train the discriminator. Moreover, we include a new adversarial training layer to improve robustness against adversarial attacks. Our solution, tested on a dataset composed of real-world stable and unstable samples, achieve accuracy up to 97.5\% in predicting grid stability and up to 98.9\% in detecting adversarial attacks. Moreover, we implemented our model in a single-board computer demonstrating efficient real-time decision-making with an average response time of less than 7ms. Our solution improves prediction accuracy and resilience while addressing data scarcity in smart grid management.
RNN-Based Models for Predicting Seizure Onset in Epileptic Patients
Mounagurusamy, Mathan Kumar, S, Thiyagarajan V, Rahman, Abdur, Chandak, Shravan, Balaji, D., Jallepalli, Venkateswara Rao
Early management and better clinical outcomes for epileptic patients depend on seizure prediction. The accuracy and false alarm rates of existing systems are often compromised by their dependence on static thresholds and basic Electroencephalogram (EEG) properties. A novel Recurrent Neural Network (RNN)-based method for seizure start prediction is proposed in the article to overcome these limitations. As opposed to conventional techniques, the proposed system makes use of Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks to extract temporal correlations from unprocessed EEG data. It enables the system to adapt dynamically to the unique EEG patterns of each patient, improving prediction accuracy. The methodology of the system comprises thorough data collecting, preprocessing, and LSTM-based feature extraction. Annotated EEG datasets are then used for model training and validation. Results show a considerable reduction in false alarm rates (average of 6.8%) and an improvement in prediction accuracy (90.2% sensitivity, 88.9% specificity, and AUC-ROC of 93). Additionally, computational efficiency is significantly higher than that of existing systems (12 ms processing time, 45 MB memory consumption). About improving seizure prediction reliability, these results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed RNN-based strategy, opening up possibilities for its practical application to improve epilepsy treatment.
The T05 System for The VoiceMOS Challenge 2024: Transfer Learning from Deep Image Classifier to Naturalness MOS Prediction of High-Quality Synthetic Speech
Baba, Kaito, Nakata, Wataru, Saito, Yuki, Saruwatari, Hiroshi
We present our system (denoted as T05) for the VoiceMOS Challenge (VMC) 2024. Our system was designed for the VMC 2024 Track 1, which focused on the accurate prediction of naturalness mean opinion score (MOS) for high-quality synthetic speech. In addition to a pretrained self-supervised learning (SSL)-based speech feature extractor, our system incorporates a pretrained image feature extractor to capture the difference of synthetic speech observed in speech spectrograms. We first separately train two MOS predictors that use either of an SSL-based or spectrogram-based feature. Then, we fine-tune the two predictors for better MOS prediction using the fusion of two extracted features. In the VMC 2024 Track 1, our T05 system achieved first place in 7 out of 16 evaluation metrics and second place in the remaining 9 metrics, with a significant difference compared to those ranked third and below. We also report the results of our ablation study to investigate essential factors of our system.
Enhancing Bangla Language Next Word Prediction and Sentence Completion through Extended RNN with Bi-LSTM Model On N-gram Language
Islam, Md Robiul, Amin, Al, Zereen, Aniqua Nusrat
Texting stands out as the most prominent form of communication worldwide. Individual spend significant amount of time writing whole texts to send emails or write something on social media, which is time consuming in this modern era. Word prediction and sentence completion will be suitable and appropriate in the Bangla language to make textual information easier and more convenient. This paper expands the scope of Bangla language processing by introducing a Bi-LSTM model that effectively handles Bangla next-word prediction and Bangla sentence generation, demonstrating its versatility and potential impact. We proposed a new Bi-LSTM model to predict a following word and complete a sentence. We constructed a corpus dataset from various news portals, including bdnews24, BBC News Bangla, and Prothom Alo. The proposed approach achieved superior results in word prediction, reaching 99\% accuracy for both 4-gram and 5-gram word predictions. Moreover, it demonstrated significant improvement over existing methods, achieving 35\%, 75\%, and 95\% accuracy for uni-gram, bi-gram, and tri-gram word prediction, respectively
Efficient Causal Discovery for Robotics Applications
Castri, Luca, Mghames, Sariah, Bellotto, Nicola
Using robots for automating tasks in environments shared with humans, such as warehouses, shopping centres, or hospitals, requires these robots to comprehend the fundamental physical interactions among nearby agents and objects. Specifically, creating models to represent cause-and-effect relationships among these elements can aid in predicting unforeseen human behaviours and anticipate the outcome of particular robot actions. To be suitable for robots, causal analysis must be both fast and accurate, meeting real-time demands and the limited computational resources typical in most robotics applications. In this paper, we present a practical demonstration of our approach for fast and accurate causal analysis, known as Filtered PCMCI (F-PCMCI), along with a real-world robotics application. The provided application illustrates how our F-PCMCI can accurately and promptly reconstruct the causal model of a human-robot interaction scenario, which can then be leveraged to enhance the quality of the interaction.